Salient to Investors:
12 analysts expect gold prices to rise next week, 9 fall and 8 neutral, the highest proportion of bulls since April 26.
Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach at Degussa Goldhandel said gold purchases outpaced sales by 9 to 1 versus 4 to 1 in Q1.
Daniel Briesemann at Commerzbank said gold should still be in demand as an alternative currency, and the QE by central banks should lead to a depreciation in rates for major currencies and inflation concerns later. As long as institutional investors are selling gold ETP holdings, this will outweigh robust retail demand.
The median economist expects US growth to accelerate in at least the next 4 quarters.
The 2,164.8 tons of gold held by investors through ETPs are the lowest since July 2011. Ric Deverell at Credit Suisse said at least another 435 tons could be sold if the Fed curbs stimulus before the end of the year, and prices may reach $1,100 in a year.
Hedge funds et al held the highest short contracts on gold last week since data began in June 2006.
Gold has been below its 200-day moving average since February.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates says prices may climb to $1,500 in June after forming a double bottom.
Citigroup said 2013 will signal death bells for the commodities supercycle.
Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB expects a trough in commodities in Q2 with higher values towards year-end as the expectation is for monetary stimulus to continue through 2013.
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