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Exports from the US are set to pick up in 2013 as global growth strengthens. Gary Hufbauer at Peterson Institute for Intl Economics said competitive US industries include agriculture, medical supplies and aviation, and exports are a very high-paying sector of the US economy – jobs are more steady in export-oriented companies, which pay better and do more R&D.
The World Bank says developing nations will grow 5.5 percent in 2013 while Europe stabilizes, and Latin America will grow 3.5 percent versus 3 percent in 2012 and led by Brazil.
Maury Harris at UBS Securities said the rest of the world is still growing, and expects exports to rise 6.7% in Q4 versus Q4 2012. UBS expects foreign demand to grow at a 6% pace in Q1 and 7% pace for the rest of 2013.
The IMF expects developing economies to grow 5.5% in 2013 versus 5.1% in 2012, and the world to grow 3.5% as Europe shrinks for a second year.
The Institute for Supply Management’s export index exceeded the break-even 50 level in December for the first time since May. UBS says this index’s 3-month average leads similar changes in actual exports by a few months.
Joseph Carson at AllianceBernstein said the US will gain market share in a growing market, in the direction of emerging markets, now 57% of US exports and up 20% over the past decade.
Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research expects US exports to grow 2.3% in 2013 and global demand to firm in half2, but cautioned that Canada, the US’s biggest customer, is cooling. Dutta said Canada’s housing market is cooling, while fiscal tightening in Europe and an Asian rebound that has had little impact outside the region are working against an acceleration in demand for US goods.
Diane Swonk expects overseas demand to pick up in half2, US exports to grow 5.1% in 2013 as China recovers and Europe stabilizes, and sales overseas to grow 8.7% in 2014. Swonk said the first wave for developing nations is importing goods such as automobiles that require time to produce domestically, and from American companies.
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