Salient to Investors:
Nick Kounis at ABN Amro Bank said the external environment is really getting better, led by signs that US demand is picking up, and Q2 should mark the end of the recession in the euro area, though the recovery will be excruciatingly slow.
Evelyn Herrmann at BNP Paribas said it all looks better than we thought and sees a very modest recovery, and is not overly bullish for half2 2013.
Lending to companies and households fell the most on record in June.
Nicholas Spiro at Spiro Sovereign Strategy said talk of an economic recovery when domestic demand is still contracting, government debt levels continue to surge and the economic and institutional reform agenda is unraveling, is wide of the mark. Spiro said Germany may be pulling ahead, but the bloc’s other main economies, including France, remain in dire straits.
The ECB forecasts a contraction for the euro-area economy of 0.6 percent in 2013 and expansion of 1.1 percent in 2014.
Laurence Boone at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said some fiscal adjustment is weighing on consumption, while banks in the south are not in a position to support the economy. Boone expects only slight growth.
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