Salient to Investors:
Tom Levinson at ING said emerging-market currencies are at the beginning of perhaps longer and deeper correction, while this is where the dollar starts to rally potentially for the right reasons because the US business cycle is further developed.
Kit Juckes at SocGen said the bull market is over for developing-nation currencies, with the rand, Mexican peso and Thai baht the first of a series of dominoes to fall, saying past sell-offs triggered by global policy tightening are pretty indiscriminate. Benoit Anne at SocGen said emerging-market currencies will remain under severe pressure for at least 3 months until fundamentals improve and the US Treasury correction to stabilize.
Murat Toprak at HSBC said the market has taken it very badly because how are you going to finance a widening of your trade deficit where investors are exiting local markets.
Bhanu Baweja at UBS said Bernanke is saying that tapering is not going to happen in a rush but at least the debate is beginning which is a very big deal.
The median analyst expects the lira to rise to 1.8 per dollar, the yuan to rise to 6.1 by year-end 2013, and the rupee to rise to 53.36 by year-end 2013.
IMF predicts China will grow 7.75 percent in 2013 and 8.2 percent in 2014.
Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.