Salient to Investors:
MacNeil Curry at Bank of America said any close for the Dollar Index above its pivot point of 82.41 would be a good sign that we have a base in place and a larger bull trend can resume. Curry said the diamond-top pattern in the euro says that its rally is complete and will reverse lower. Curry said all the weakness in the dollar v. the euro has been very impulsive and is bullish on the dollar.
A diamond-top pattern signifies a widening in volatility, which often coincides with a change in trend. The euro – 58 percent of the Dollar Index – is creating a diamond-top pattern versus the dollar, implying an imminent reversal.
The median economist expects US GDP to grow 2.7 percent in 2014 versus an average estimate of 1.9 percent for the G-10.
Options traders are bullish on the dollar.
JPMorgan Chase said the Dollar Index may test 83.96 if it can break through resistance at 82.68 – its 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the Index’s July range.
Roelof-Jan Van den Akker at ING said a Dollar Index close above the 200-day moving average would confirm the successful test of horizontal support, while a close above the 50-day moving average line definitely confirms a bottom, and that the next rally is underway to 83.20.
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