Salient to Investors:
Steve Clemons and Richard Vague say the financial crisis and Great Recession were caused primarily by massive private debt. But saying debt is the main catalyst that routinely triggers recessions goes too far. The credit crunch of 1966 was not accompanied by an economic downturn.
Gary Gorton says banks and bank debt were at the root of every one of the 124 systemic crises around the world from 1970 to 2007.
The only reliable forecast is that there’s another recession out there somewhere. Debt levels can increase for years without the onset of recession.
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