Salient to Investors:
Copper traders are the most bearish since June 1 as growth slows from China to Europe.
International Copper Study Group said supply will outpace demand in 2013, the first glut in four years, and the biggest in more than a decade.
Goldman Sachs predict the surge in copper demand from China’s housing market will crash by 2014 as projects are completed –
Angus Staines at UBS says another rally requires QE to translate into demand for copper, which won’t come until restocking in China in February or March – disappointing data from China is bad for copper.
Barclay’s estimates Europe accounts for 18 percent of global copper demand, North America for 11 percent.
Ana Rebelo at ICSG said net copper imports will fall for the rest of the year.
Hedge funds et al are still betting on a rally – at the highest level since August 2011, reversing thier bet on price declines from May to August
LME report inventories in warehouses are down 42 percent this year and on Sepembet 19 were the lowest since October 2008.
Holdings in gold-backed ETPs reached a record yesterday.
Hussein Allidina at Morgan Stanley said recent easing in the US and Europe limit the downside risks to growth, but won’y materially improve growth Allidina says gold will benefiti from growing fiat supply and a continued depressed real-rate environment.