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Archive for the Investment Mathematics Category

Here comes your biggest melt-up for stocks since 1998 – MarketWatch 10-30-15

Salient to Investors: Nour Al-Hammoury at ADS Securities expects stocks to drop in November on the fears of a rate hike in December until the Fed changes its mind again. Steve Sjuggerud at the Daily Wealth said stocks will soar over the next 18 months because we reached an extreme of fear

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Retail investors are the most bullish, and least bearish, in 8 months – MarketWatch 10-29-15

Salient to Investors: AAII report 40.4% of individual investors expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months, versus 34.8% a week ago, and the highest since February. 20.6% were bearish, the lowest since February. Retail investor sentiment is often cited as a contrarian indicator. Read the full

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Brands that make consumers emotional outperform the S&P 500 over time – MarketWatch 10-07-15

Salient to Investors: MBLM found that from 2005 to 2014,  companies with intimate brands averaged 5% more revenue growth and 11% more profit growth than the S&P 500 index. The top-performing industry in the US was the auto industry, suggesting scandals did not dent customer enthusiasm. Mario Natarelli at MBLM said

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Looking for the lifeboats – The Economist 09-19-15

Salient to Investors: Both equities and government bonds are overvalued but are unlikely to fall in tandem. Long-term investors should ignore short-term market declines because over the long-term, asset prices rise – US equities overcame the dotcom bubble and 2008 financial crisis to reach record highs in 2015. However, equities could be

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Jim Simons: A rare interview with the mathematician who cracked Wall Street – TED.com 09-03-15

Salient to Investors: Jim Simons at Math for America said: In the old days, commodities or currencies had a tendency to trend. Trend-following was great in the ’60s, sort of OK in the ’70s,  but not OK in the ’80s. You look for anomalies in the data, when efficient market hypothesis

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This Is Not A Retest – Its A Live Bear! – David Stockman’s Contra Corner 09-03-15

Salient to Investors: David Stockman writes: US stocks are in a bear market. Honest financial markets would have sold off long ago, but for central bank falsification of asset prices. The S&P 500 is at 20 times trailing earnings as of June 2015: $97.32 per share versus $103.12 at the end of

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Is A Bear Market Starting? Prepare To Be Mauled, Down And Up – Seeking Alpha 08-24-15

Salient to Investors: Miles Hoffman writes: Expect at least a 20% move down, and a seasonally bearish Fall. Bear markets have two phases, and can move down and up sharply. The first is where the leading sector of the prior bull market goes into a bear market, while other sectors

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This Week’s Market Sell-Off May Not Be Such a Bad Thing – The New York Times 08-21-15

Salient to Investors: The market drop this week looks more like a trivial downward bounce within a consistent range and a much-needed breather than a catastrophe in the making. Markets were priced for perfection in a world economy far from perfect.  $100 invested in stocks still buys only $5.59 in earnings, versus

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Here Are the Ominous Signs a Crushing Stock Market Correction Looms – TheStreet.com 08-15-15

Salient to Investors: James Hickman writes: Uninterrupted streaks in which the S&P 500 closes within 10% of its all ­time peak historically precede sudden declines: viz the tech bubble of the 1990s and the credit/housing bubble of the 2000s. The median decline from the peak is ­43% and typically takes 13

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Birinyi Says You Can Toss Out the Old Tools for Calling S&P 500 – BloombergBusiness 08-05-15

Salient to Investors: Laszlo Birinyi said: The market is now so dominated by institutional investors, hedge funds and service industries, that sentiment drives prices more than anything else, so predictions based on valuation data going back a hundred years are bound to fail. Recent developments in Amazon, Google, and Chipotle clearly show

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